A catástrofe que não veio. E 2019 promete ser tenso
O Fluminense não só se livrou do rebaixamento, se livrou do caos. O cenário do clube que desce à segundona é, de acordo com as novas cotas de TV, absurdamente catastrófico. Hoje, é inegável que as cotas de TV geram a maior fonte de receita dos clubes brasileiros e, com essa mudança, o clube que caiu irá experimentar a dura realidade dessas mudanças.
A diferença mais impactante é que o clube que caía antigamente ainda mantinha alguns de seus benefícios do contrato que tinha na séria A e, com a nova realidade, hoje receberia apenas 7 milhões de reais – mais a participação do PPV – tal qual os outros integrantes da série B. Nesse novo cenário, é muito difícil que um clube consiga reduzir as despesas na velocidade que as receitas vão diminuir. Isso sem mencionar adiantamento de receitas das cotas, despesas de financiamento, acordos judiciais e todo o resto que os clubes fazem costumeiramente.
O novo modelo de contrato prevê a distribuição de receitas de TV Aberta e Fechada de três formas: 40% igual entre os times, 30% por número de exibição na TV aberta e 30% por posição no campeonato. A questão é que, fora os 40% divididos igualmente, os outros 60% dependeriam do desempenho do ano para saber quanto cada clube ganharia. Por exemplo, os 30% de premiação só poderiam ser pagos após o Brasileiro, isto é, no final do campeonato. E esse ponto promete “punir” os clubes menos organizados, pois o fluxo de caixa do clube será bastante alterado, e isso pode gerar impacto dentro das finanças.
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A queda hoje representa mais riscos de não subir no ano seguinte do que antigamente. Basta olhar com maior atenção que perceberemos que os clubes que ali estão (na série B) já se enquadram na própria realidade. Seus orçamentos e gastos estão alocados dentro daquela realidade – folhas de pagamento do elenco, como por exemplo. O Sport, primeiro “cotista” a ser rebaixado, vai experimentar a mudança abrupta de realidade. Por outro lado, cubes de menor investimento que subiram para a série A vão ter mais recursos para tentar se manter por lá. E isso representa mais riscos ainda para os times mais desorganizados.
Um clube que consegue subir para série A, consegue por estar organizado e que já vem jogando bem – ou pelo menos o suficiente para subir. Agora, imagine esse mesmo clube, que hoje tem uma folha de pagamento mais modesta, recebendo 6, 7 vezes mais do que no ano anterior. Obviamente irá se reforçar e terá maior oportunidade de se manter na primeira divisão. Ou seja, esse dinheiro vai reforçar ainda mais a organização do clube. Por outro lado, os clubes que estão “capengando” na série A (adivinha quem faz parte desse grupo) com problemas financeiros, e que não conseguirem armar um elenco equilibrado (no mínimo) irão sofrer com a concorrência dos mais organizados e teoricamente de menor expressão nacional. Pode ter sido decretado o fim dos clubes “Io-Io”, tanto para quem desce num ano e sobe no outro, quanto para quem sobe e desce.
Planejamento, mais do que nunca, é essencial para atravessarmos 2019 com maior tranquilidade, e quem sabe até brigar por títulos. Mas que esse nosso cenário de hoje, diante da desconfiança que nossa diretoria passa, causa calafrios no mais sereno dos tricolores, isso causa!
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