Fluminense de Odair “deveria” ter marcado 14 gols, mas já fez 22; entenda

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Ferramentas de estatísticas estão ganhando cada vez mais força no futebol nos últimos anos. Seja no número de passes-chave realizados por determinado jogador, mapas de calor, minutos em campo, número de vitórias, derrotas, entre outras. É fato que os números precisam ser avaliados levando em consideração o contexto no qual estão inseridos, mas poucas variáveis conseguem traduzir tão bem o desempenho de uma equipe quanto os Expected Goals (xG).

O que são os xG?

Os Expected Goals, ou Gols Esperados, surgiram com o objetivo de medir a probabilidade de um gol acontecer. Mas como essa previsão é feita, principalmente em um esporte imprevisível como o futebol? Para isso são analisadas diferentes variáveis, como se a finalização foi realizada de dentro ou fora área; o ângulo e a distância; se foi com o pé direito, esquerdo ou de cabeça; se quem chutou estava marcado; se a jogada foi individual ou não e, se não, qual foi a jogada que antecedeu o chute (passe rasteiro, cruzamento, rebote, etc.); entre outras situações possíveis.

Em um universo de 0 a 1, onde 1 é aquela “chance clara de gol”, é possível medir o desempenho de cada equipe. O GE divulgou uma análise dos Expected Goals dos 20 clubes da Série A do Brasileirão e o resultado reflete a situação de cada um na tabela do campeonato. O líder do campeonato, Atlético-MG, lidera a lista.

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Time Expectativa de gols no ataque (xG) Gols marcados no Brasileirão Realidade*
Atlético-MG 27,8 29 1,2
São Paulo 20,1 20 -0,1
Flamengo 19,9 22 2,1
Bahia 18,7 18 -0,7
Botafogo 17,8 16 -1,8
Internacional 17,6 21 3,4
Grêmio 17,5 14 -3,5
Santos 17 21 4
Palmeiras 16,7 18 1,3
Sport 16,1 15 -1,1
Ceará 15,8 17 1,2
Corinthians 15,7 17 1,3
Bragantino 15,5 16 0,5
Fluminense 14,4 22 7,6
Athletico-PR 14,2 11 -3,2
Atlético-GO 13,6 15 1,4
Fortaleza 13 14 1
Coritiba 12,3 10 -2,3
Goiás 12,2 17 4,8
Vasco 11,4 18 6,6

Fonte: GE

 

Se um time possui o xG muito baixo, por exemplo, significa que poucas foram suas chances reais de gol, mesmo que seja uma das que mais finaliza. Por outro lado, quando uma equipe tem um xG elevado, quer dizer que seus atacantes tem um alto índice de finalizações em condições reais de marcar. No entanto, há mais um caso a ser observado: o da equipe que marca mais gols do que seu próprio xG. É o caso do Fluminense de Odair Hellmann.

Flu de Odair

Ao fim da 15ª rodada do Campeonato Brasileiro, o Fluminense chegou aos 24 pontos assumindo a 5ª posição na tabela. Apesar de constantemente pressionado por parte da torcida, Odair vem comandando o clube na sua melhor campanha no Brasileirão desde a saída da Unimed, em 2014. Como explicar tais números conseguidos por um time considerado por muitos “limitado” sob o comando de um técnico taxado como “retranqueiro”? Aí entram os Expected Goals.

De acordo com a análise feita pelo GE, o Fluminense possui um xG de 14,4 até o momento, ou seja, levando em consideração todas as chances criadas, o Flu “deveria” ter marcado 14 gols. No entanto, já são 22 gols marcados, o que faz do Tricolor o segundo melhor ataque da competição (empatado com o Flamengo). Esses números mostram que sob o comando de Odair, o Fluminense é uma equipe mais equilibrada – se comparado ao próprio Flu um ano atrás, sob o comando de Diniz – e que finaliza menos, mas procura otimizar suas decisões ao máximo. Exemplo disso é o fato de que o Flu de Odair finaliza mais de dentro da área do que de fora, são 27 tentativas próximas ao gol contra 21 em média e longa distância.

Nenê comemora gol na vitória sobre o Bahia / Imagem: Lucas Merçon FFC

Diniz caiu do comando técnico da equipe em 2019 após a 15ª rodada do Brasileirão. Na ocasião o Flu finalizou 31 vezes (seis vezes mais do que o CSA) e saiu de campo derrotado por 1 a 0. Com aquele resultado, o Fluminense entrou no Z-4 passando a ocupar a 18ª posição com 12 pontos em 15 partidas. Até o momento eram 19 gols marcados e 25 sofridos.

Com Odair o aproveitamento, que no mesmo período de tempo foi de 26,6%, subiu para 53,3%. E os Expected Goals conseguem traduzir bem esse desempenho. Isso porque, ainda de acordo com os dados divulgados pelo GE, o Flu possui o melhor saldo (gols feitos – xG) entre todas as equipes da Série A do Brasileirão.

Foto de capa: Lucas Merçon / Fluminense F.C

 


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